Modeling and Mapping the Risk of Loss Macro Economics for Natural Disasters
Keywords:
Disaster Losses Macroeconomics, Spatial Autoregressive, Geographic Information SystemAbstract
This study aims to determine the magnitude of the economic impact caused by natural disasters as well as to map the magnitude of macro- economic risk of loss from each region will be used as a study with Java as the target of studies. The data used in this study is a secondary data in 2011 from the National Disaster Management Agency and Central Bureau of Statistics in Indonesia, while the data analysis methods used are Regression of Dummy Variables and Regression Analysis of Spatial. Outcomes resulting from this study are thematic map that displays economic risk factors and the model estimates the economic losses in the event of a disasters. The results of this study showed a negative relationship between GDP at current prices by the number of occurrences spatially disaster in East Java and Yogyakarta Province and district data for modeling using Spatial Autoregressive Model showed a  significant relationship between the value of GDP, population and number of disaster events. Morans'I’s values was negatives , meaning that 1 unit increase in the number of disasters and the number of people at risk will decrease the value of GDP (macro-economic) of 0.54531 billion Indonesian rupiah or U.S.$46,076.
Â
References
Kusrini Dwi Endah, Mukhtasor, Maulidiyah,†Estimating costs for oil spills with Simultan Equation Modellingâ€, International Conference Mathematics and Statistics, Aplications, Denpasar, Indonesia,. 2012.
Kusrini Dwi Endah, Mukhtasor, Maulidiyah, Ilhamsyah Firdian, “Analysis of Socio-Economic Conditions Public NTT After Occurrence of Marine Pollution from Oil Spills Due Montara Oil Refineryâ€, National Marine Seminar, SENTA, Surabaya, Indonesia, 2011,.
Peter Goetz von, Dahlen Sebastian von, and Saxena Sweta , “Unmitigated disasters?New evidence on the macroeconomic cost of natural catastrophesâ€, BIS Working Papers No 394, 2012.
Global Assement Report, http://www.preventionweb.net/preventionweb-files/english/hyogo/ gar/2011/en/home/ index.html, di downloaded at 10 January 2013.
Data Distribution of Disasters in Indonesia, 2012, http://www.dibi.bnpb.go.id, downloaded at 7 January 2013.
Otiori Dian, and Manurung Sudomo, “Geospatial Model Potential Tsunami Vulnerability Padang Municipality, Journal of Meteorology and Geophysics, Vol. 11 No. 2 pp. 136 – 141, 2010.
Habibi Marbruno and Buchori Imam, “Spatial Model of Economic and Social Vulnerability to Disaster Institutional Volcanoâ€, Journal of Engineering PWK, vol. 2 No. 1, 2013.
FLOOD site Flood, “Risk assessment and flood risk management. An introduction and guidance based on experiences and findings of FLOOD site (an EU funded Integrated Project)â€, Deltares | Delft Hydraulics, Delft, the Netherlands, 2009.
Rose, A, “Economic Principles, Issues, and Research Priorities in Hazard Loss Estimationâ€, in: Okuyama,Y. and S. Chang (eds.), Modeling Spatial and Economic Impacts of Disasters, Berlin: Springer, 14–36, 2004.
Hallegatte, S. and M. Ghil, “Natural Disasters Impacting a Macroeconomic Model with Endogenous Dynamicsâ€, Ecological Economics, vol.68, 582–592, 2008.
Hallstrom, D.G., and V. K. Smith, “Market responses to hurricanesâ€, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, vol.50, pp.541–561, 2005.
Meyer V. & Messner, F., “National Flood Damage Evaluation Methods. A Review of Applied Methods in England, the Netherlands, the Czech Republic and Germanyâ€. Discussion Papers, Umweltforschungszetrum Leipzig–Halle, Department Ökonomie, Leipzig: 47 pp, 2005.
Wilhite, D.A., Svoboda, M.D., Hayes, M.J, “Understanding the complex impacts of drought: a key to enhancing drought mitigation and preparednessâ€, Water Resources Management,vol. 21: 763-74, 2007.
Jonkman S.N., BoÄkarjova M., Kok M., Bernardini P., “Integrated hydrodynamic and economic modeling of flood damage in the Netherlandsâ€, Ecological Economics, vol. 66, Issue 1, 15 May 2008, Pages77-90, 2008.
Brown Gaddis, E., Miles B., Morse S., Lewis D, “Full cost accounting of coastal disasters in the United States: Implications for planning and preparednessâ€, Ecological Economics, vol.63 ,pp 307-318, 2006.
Hallegatte Stéphane, Przyluski Valentin, “The Economics of Natural Disasters Concepts and Methods Policyâ€, Research Working Paper 5507, The World Bank Sustainable Development Network Office of the Chief Economist, 2010.
Anselin L., “Spatial Econometrics: Methods and Modelsâ€, Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1988.
Anselin l. and J. Le gallo, “ Interpolation of Air Quality Measures in Hedonic House Price Models: Spatial Aspects, Spatial Economic Analysisâ€, Vol.1pp. 31-52, 2006.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
- Papers must be submitted on the understanding that they have not been published elsewhere (except in the form of an abstract or as part of a published lecture, review, or thesis) and are not currently under consideration by another journal published by any other publisher.
- It is also the authors responsibility to ensure that the articles emanating from a particular source are submitted with the necessary approval.
- The authors warrant that the paper is original and that he/she is the author of the paper, except for material that is clearly identified as to its original source, with permission notices from the copyright owners where required.
- The authors ensure that all the references carefully and they are accurate in the text as well as in the list of references (and vice versa).
- Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgement of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work (See The Effect of Open Access).
- The journal/publisher is not responsible for subsequent uses of the work. It is the author's responsibility to bring an infringement action if so desired by the author.